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MSFT · MICROSOFT CORP

Changes to watch · 4 concrete new risks (supply chain, customers and competition, technology and products)

10-K 2026-07-29 ↗ compared with the previous 10-K 10-K 2025-07-30 ↗

Closing price50-day average200-day average

Technical events and factor profile →

Summary

Microsoft warns of increased risks from AI strategy and cloud infrastructure investments, including underutilization of assets and regulatory challenges.

Automatic summary generated from the filing; it may contain inaccuracies.
Concrete new risks
4
Generic new risks
7
Filing
10-K · 2026-07-29

How the stock reacted

After the 10-K1 session5 sessions20 sessions
MSFT-0.7%+25.3%+25.2%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-2.0%+7.2%+5.2%
Difference+1.3%+18.1%+20.0%

From the close before the filing. Historical data, not a prediction.

What the concrete new risks are about

Supply chain · 2Customers and competition · 1Technology and products · 1

New risks 11

Concrete fact Customers and competition
AI strategy depends on evolving customer demand and third-party relationships

Our cloud and AI strategy requires substantial investments and depends on evolving customer demand, technological developments, competitive dynamics, and regulatory conditions, any of which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. We have made and are continuing to make significant capital and operational investments to develop, train, deploy, and support AI models and related cloud-based services, including building and expanding datacenters, acquiring necessary components, and securing energy resources. These investments are being made at significant scale and on an accelerated timeline, require substantial and increasing capital expenditures and continued access to capital, and are in advance of fully developed revenue streams. The associated revenue may not be realized in the expected timeframes or at expected levels. Our capital and operational investments are complex and involve projects in multiple locations around the world that expose us to increased compliance risks and political challenges, among others. Our ability to fund these investments depends on our ability to generate sufficient cash flows and obtain financing on acceptable terms. Adverse changes in interest rates, credit markets, investor sentiment, our credit ratings, or other factors affecting capital availability could increase our cost of capital or limit our ability to execute our infrastructure strategy. The financial success of these investments depends on a number of uncertain factors, including customer demand for cloud-based and AI products and services and continued customer use of Azure to build, train, deploy, and run AI workloads, our ability to price and monetize those services at levels sufficient to recover our costs, competitive dynamics affecting pricing, and the pace of adoption of AI. Customers may reduce, delay, or shift AI workloads to competing platforms, on-premises or local deployments, or other alternatives. If adoption of our AI services develops more slowly than expected, or if customers do not continue to utilize Azure for AI workloads at anticipated levels, we may not realize the expected returns on our investments.

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Key figures quarterly · USD

Revenue (TTM)
$331.8B
YoY growth
+17.7%
Operating margin
45.1%
Cash / debt
$20.9B / $31.1B
Jun 26Mar 26Dec 25Sep 25Jun 25
Revenue$90.0B$82.9B$81.3B$77.7B$76.4B
YoY growth+17.7%+18.3%+16.7%+18.4%+18.1%
Gross margin67.2%67.6%68.0%69.0%68.6%
Operating margin45.1%46.3%47.1%48.9%44.9%
Net income$35.8B$31.8B$38.5B$27.7B$27.2B
Diluted EPS4.804.275.163.723.65

XBRL data filed with the SEC. The fourth fiscal quarter is calculated as the full year minus the previous three quarters.

Factor profile percentile vs. the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100

Momentum
12 months excl. last: -2.3% · 6 months +25.6%
34
Trend quality
R² 0.57 · rising
83
Relative strength
+15.5% vs. the S&P 500 over 6 months
86
Volatility
38% annualised
70
Beta
beta 0.98
70
Distance from high
-2.6% from the 52-week high
88
Extension
+0.6 standard deviations from its 20-day average
41

0 = the lowest in the universe, 100 = the highest. It describes how the stock has behaved, not whether to buy or sell it. Screen stocks by factors

Management tone MD&A

+15

Similar than in the previous 10-K (2025-07-30: +15, +0 points)

10-K of 2026-07-29 · 28.5% positive sentences, 12.7% negative · 267 sentences analysed

Index from −100 to +100 calculated with FinBERT on the results discussion (MD&A). The change matters more than the level: some sectors always sound more cautious.

Top funds 13F

Pershing Square · Bill Ackman
held since Q1 2026
15.3% $2.1B new
Fundsmith · Terry Smith
held since Q3 2023 or earlier
4.4% $595.6M -23%
Tiger Global · Chase Coleman
held since Q3 2023 or earlier
3.5% $845.6M -9%
Coatue Management · Philippe Laffont
held since Q3 2023 or earlier
2.3% $1.1B +18%
Viking Global · Andreas Halvorsen
held since Q3 2025
1.6% $544.1M -37%
Markel Group · Tom Gayner
held since Q3 2023 or earlier
1.5% $200.5M =
Soros Fund Management · George Soros
held since Q2 2025
1.2% $70.9M -10%
Bridgewater Associates · Ray Dalio
held since Q3 2023 or earlier
1.1% $265.6M -34%
ARK Investment Management · Cathie Wood
held since Q3 2023 or earlier
0.0% $2.3M =
Appaloosa · David Tepper — sold

Weight in each fund's portfolio and change vs. the previous quarter, from its latest 13F.

Recent material events (8-K)

2026-09-02 Investor communication (Reg FD) 5 sessions: -0.8% vs Nasdaq-100 SEC ↗
2026-07-29 Results released 5 sessions: +16.4% vs Nasdaq-100 SEC ↗
2026-06-05 Executive or board changes 5 sessions: -5.6% vs Nasdaq-100 SEC ↗

All material events for MSFT →

Insiders · last 90 days

Buys
—
Discretionary sells
—
10b5-1 plan sells
$24.7M
2026-10-13 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $1.8M SEC ↗
2026-10-13 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $1.6M SEC ↗
2026-10-13 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $542K SEC ↗
2026-09-14 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $5.2M SEC ↗
2026-09-14 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $4.9M SEC ↗
2026-09-14 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $4.4M SEC ↗
2026-09-14 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $2.2M SEC ↗
2026-09-14 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $2.1M SEC ↗
2026-09-14 Hood Amy · CFO Sell (10b5-1 plan) $2.0M SEC ↗

Source: SEC EDGAR. Automatic comparison of the risk factors section; it may contain extraction errors. Always check the original document. For information purposes only; not investment advice.